What Variant?
In statistical terms, variance is used to test the differences between individual results and the average for a set of results. These results can be represented as data points in a set to determine fluctuations in that set.
We will show how to calculate variance with a small sample data set. If you were to track the results for the previous session at the $ 3/6 $ fixed-limit cash hold'em game, they could read:
-11, 85, -30, 144, 9, 30, -87
Each of these results is a data point in a set of seven numbers.
Total of these seven sessions is equal to 140 (-11 + 85-30 + 144 + 9 + 30-87 = 140)
On average these seven sessions are equal to 20 (140/7).
Variance is the sum of squares of the difference between each data point and the mean.
For the first result, (20 - (-11)) = (20 + 11) = 31. 31 ^ 2 = 961
Follow the same procedure for each result and you get this number accordingly:
961, 4225, 2500, 15376, 121, 100, 11449
Add these numbers and divide by seven to get the variance:
+ + 4225 961 2500 + 15376 + 121 + 100 + 11.449 = 34.732
34732/7 = 4,961.71
Standard deviation, another measure of volatility, is the square root of variance:
SQRT (4961.71) = 70.43
The most frequent results lie within one standard deviation (+/- 70) of the average (20). With this result, the player must expect to complete the session somewhere between -50 (20-70) and 90 (20 + 70).
However, many of the data points are outside this range. Is this the product of bad luck, bad cards or bad playing?
Variance and Sample Size
The more data points the sample size contains, the more accurate and reliable measurement of variance and standard deviations will be. The seven-point data set included here is obviously too small to provide an accurate estimate of how a player performs at 3/6 hold'em game limits. Also, more data points will give players more information about how to manage the inevitable ups and downs involved in cash games.
Variance and Central Limit Theorem
Another important mathematical concept that comes with sample size is the "Central Theorem Limit". This concept states that, as the number of data points in a set grows, a plot of points on the graph will resemble a normal statistical distribution, as seen in the classic "Bell Curve".
The principle is that, the larger the sample size, the more data points that will fall at or near the average. This measure of variance gives players a more accurate idea as to what is expected from that result.
Variance and Luck
Even in the career of a professional poker player, the player will have a session where he has a win (or loss) that goes two or more standard deviations from the average. Many experienced players attribute this result to luck, but they are within the realm of possibilities displayed in the Bell Curve. These data points are known as "outliers" and, individually, have little effect on the variance seen over careers. If these "isolated" results continue to emerge, however, they may signal the beginning of a new trend.
Variance and bankrolls
A capital playing online gambling with a trusted online poker agent is needed enough to act as a cushion against variance. Some players might believe that, with only a few positive results in the $ 1 / $ 2 no-limit hold'em game, they are ready to jump into the game $ 2 / $ 5 or $ 5 / $ 10, regardless of the size of their bankroll. When the variance swings in the negative direction, as it will, the bankroll may send the player to one of the lower stakes or exit the game completely.
Variance and Structure
Some online poker games like those we can search on Google, as well as some betting structures, tend to have higher variants than others. For example, a $ 3/6 $ fixed-limit hold'em game will have variants of less than $ 1 / $ 2 no-limit hold'em game because it is almost exclusively for betting structures. Within the $ 3/6 $ game limit, the maximum bet a player can make on the river is $ 24 (bet-raise back raise-cap). In an unlimited match, players can bet their entire stack at any time, which may be hundreds of dollars. This bet size can cause large changes in variance.
Variance in Poker Tournaments
Although the appeal of fame and glory is presented by television events, there is no limit to the shining tournament hold'em compared to other online gambling examples of the deception of variance. Most professional players in even the biggest poker agents (including many famous faces on the tournament circuit) make more of their lives through cash games and only enter the most prestigious (and profitable) tournaments because of the high variance involved. Most big tournament winners are "outliers", as up to ninety percent of all tournament players walk home empty-handed.
Variance and Play Styles
In a previous piece, we examined four primary playing styles (loose-passive, loose-aggressive, tight-tight passive and aggressive). Just as the strict-aggressive style has proven to be the most beneficial, it also often causes the lowest variant. Both loose-passive and tight-passive players depend on catching cards to win hands (high-variance strategy) whereas loose-aggressive styles rely on big bets to push players from hands. The strict-aggressive method relies on the choice of strong starting hands, rare cliffs and an established understanding of probabilities, all of which contribute to reducing variance.
Variance and Emotion
The effects of big wins and surprising losses are not limited to financing players. The emotional roller coaster that comes with large changes in variance can also affect how a player approaches the game. Players who are used to big wins may lose their cold when faced with a devastating loss. One bad session can set the player "on tilt" and destroy both his skills and confidence. As a result made him into the butt of playing despite playing with the 2015 Poker Agent, especially if he plays with poker for real money, losing feels so painful. For that we must really read the situation when wanting to play online gambling.
How to Deal with Variance
The shift in variance can be as unpredictable and dangerous as the shift in weather: everyone complains about them, but no one can do anything to prevent it. The most important aspect of success in running with a trusted online poker agent is in treating each session or tournament as a continuation in one long game. Experienced players understand that their success as players does not lie in the outcome of a single tournament or multiple cash-game sessions. Each session represents only one single data point: a consistent approach will often reduce (but never completely eliminate) variance.
Conclusion
Former World Series of Poker Main Event Champion Chris "Jesus" Ferguson once said that poker games are "100 percent luck and 100 percent skill". Substitution of each card is the result of luck, but how players respond that unexpected events are a product of skill, practice and experience. The ability to manage inherent variance games is a skill equivalent to calculating the odds-outs in terms of how successful a player can finally become.
